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\chapter{Theoretical Background 12}
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\label{chap:background}
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-This chapter introduces the theoretical knowledge that forms the foundation of
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-the work presented in this thesis. In~\Cref{sec:domain}
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-and~\Cref{sec:differentialEq}, we talk about differential equations and the
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-underlying theory. In these Sections both the explanations and the approach are
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-strongly based on the book on analysis by Rudin~\cite{Rudin2007} and the book
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-about ordinary differential equations by Tenenbaum and
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-Pollard~\cite{Tenenbaum1985}. Subsequently, we employ this knowledge to examine
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-various pandemic models in~\Cref{sec:epidemModel}.
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-Finally, we address the topic of neural networks with a focus on the multilayer
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+This chapter introduces the theoretical foundations for the work presented in
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+this thesis. In~\Cref{sec:domain} and~\Cref{sec:differentialEq}, we describe
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+differential equations and the underlying theory. In these Sections both the
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+explanations and the approach are based on a book on analysis by
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+Rudin~\cite{Rudin2007} and a book about ordinary differential equations by
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+Tenenbaum and Pollard~\cite{Tenenbaum1985}. Subsequently, we employ this
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+knowledge to examine various pandemic models in~\Cref{sec:epidemModel}. Finally,
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+we address the topic of neural networks with a focus on the multilayer
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perceptron in~\Cref{sec:mlp} and physics informed neural networks
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in~\Cref{sec:pinn}.
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@@ -27,16 +26,16 @@ in~\Cref{sec:pinn}.
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\section{Mathematical Modelling using Functions 1}
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\label{sec:domain}
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-To model a physical problem using mathematical tools, it is necessary to define
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-a set of fundamental numbers or quantities upon which the subsequent
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-calculations will be based. These sets may represent, for instance, a specific
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-time interval or a distance. The term \emph{domain} describes these fundamental
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-sets of numbers or quantities~\cite{Rudin2007}. A \emph{variable} is a changing
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-entity living in a certain domain. In this thesis, we will focus on domains of
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-real numbers in $\mathbb{R}$.\\
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+To model a physical problem mathematically, it is necessary to define a set of
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+fundamental numbers\todo{meeting question 1} or quantities upon which the subsequent calculations will be
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+based. These sets may represent, for instance, a specific time interval or a
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+distance. The term \emph{domain} describes these fundamental sets of numbers or
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+quantities~\cite{Rudin2007}. A \emph{variable} is a changing entity living in a
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+certain domain. In this thesis, we will focus on domains of real numbers in
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+$\mathbb{R}$.\\
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-The mapping between variables enables the modeling of the process and depicts
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-the semantics. We use functions in order to facilitate this mapping. Let
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+The mapping between variables enables the modeling of a physical process and may
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+depict semantics. We use functions in order to facilitate this mapping. Let
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$A, B\subset\mathbb{R}$ be to subsets of the real numbers, then we define a
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function as the mapping
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\begin{equation}
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@@ -46,52 +45,55 @@ In other words, the function $f$ maps elements $x\in A$ to values
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$f(x)\in B$. $A$ is the \emph{domain} of $f$, while $B$ is the \emph{codomain}
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of $f$. Functions are capable of representing the state of a system as a value
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based on an input value from their domain. One illustrative example is a
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-function that maps a time point to the distance covered since a starting point.
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+function that maps a time step to the distance covered since a starting point.
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In this case, time serves as the domain, while the distance is the codomain.
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% -------------------------------------------------------------------
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-\section{Basics of Differential Equations 1}
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+\section{Mathematical Modelling using Differential Equations 1}
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\label{sec:differentialEq}
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-Often, the change of a system is more interesting than its current state.
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-Functions are able to give us the latter, but only passively give information
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-about the change of a system. The objective is to determine an effective method
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-for calculating the change of a function across its domain. Let $f$ be a
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-function and $[a, b]\subset \mathbb{R}$ an interval of real numbers, the
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-expression
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+Often, the behavior of a variable or a quantity across a domain is more
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+interesting than its current state. Functions are able to give us the latter, \todo{meeting question 2}
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+but only passively give information about the change of a system. The objective
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+is to determine an effective method for calculating the change of a function
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+across its domain. Let $f$ be a function and $[a, b]\subset \mathbb{R}$ an
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+interval of real numbers. The expression
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\begin{equation}
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m = \frac{f(b) - f(a)}{a-b}
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\end{equation}
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gives the average rate of change. While the average rate of change is useful in
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-many cases, the momentary rate of change is more accurate. To calculate this,
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+many cases, the momentary rate of change is more accurate. To calculate this, \todo{look up in Rudin - cite (wordly)}
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we need to narrow down, the interval to an infinitesimal. For each $x\in[a, b]$
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we calculate
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\begin{equation} \label{eqn:differential}
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\frac{df}{dx} = \lim_{t\to x} \frac{f(t) - f(x)}{t-x},
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\end{equation}
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-if it exists. $\frac{df}{dx}$ is the \emph{derivative}, or
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-\emph{differential equation}, it returns the momentary rate of change of $f$ for
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-each value $x$ of $f$'s domain. Repeating this process on $\frac{df}{dx}$ yields
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-$\frac{d^2f}{dx^2}$, which is the function that calculates the rate of change of
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-the rate of change and is called the second order derivative. Iterating this $n$
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-times results in $\frac{d^nf}{dx^n}$, the derivative of the $n$'th order.
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-Another method for obtaining a differential equation is to create it from the
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-semantics of a problem. This method is useful if no basic function exists for a
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-system. Differential equations find application in several areas such as
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-engineering, physics, economics, epidemiology, and beyond.\\
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-
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-\todo{Here insert definition of differential equations (take from books)}
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+if it exists. As the Tenenbaum and Pollard~\cite{Tenenbaum1985} define,
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+$\nicefrac{df}{dx}$ is the \emph{derivative}, which is ``the rate of change of a
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+variable with respect to another''. The relation between a variable and its
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+derivative is modeled in a \emph{differential equation}. The derivative of
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+$\nicefrac{df}{dx}$ yields $\nicefrac{d^2f}{dx^2}$, which is the function that
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+calculates the rate of change of the rate of change and is called the
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+\emph{second order derivative}. Iterating this $n$ times results in
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+$\nicefrac{d^nf}{dx^n}$, the derivative of the $n$'th order. A method for
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+obtaining a differential equation is to derive it from the semantics of a
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+problem. For example, in physics a differential equation can be derived from the
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+law of the conservation of energy~\cite{Demtroeder2021}. Differential equations \todo{is this good?}
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+find application in several areas such as engineering \eg, the Chua's
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+circuit~\cite{Matsumoto1984}, physics with, \eg, the Schrödinger
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+equation~\cite{Schroedinger1926}, economics, \eg, Black-Scholes
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+equation~\cite{Oksendal2000}, epidemiology, and beyond.\\
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In the context of functions, it is possible to have multiple domains, meaning
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that function has more than one parameter. To illustrate, consider a function
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-operating in two-dimensional space, wherein each parameter represents one axis
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-or one that, employs with time and locations as inputs. The term
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-\emph{partial differential equations} (\emph{PDE}'s) describes differential
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-equations of such functions, which require a derivative for each of their
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-domains. In contrast, \emph{ordinary differential equations} (\emph{ODE}'s) are
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-the single derivatives for a function having only one domain. In this thesis, we
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-only need ODE's.\\
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+operating in two-dimensional space, wherein each parameter represents one axis.
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+Another example would be a function, that maps its inputs of a location variable
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+and a time variable on a height. The term \emph{partial differential equations}
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+(\emph{PDE}'s) describes differential equations of such functions, which contain
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+partial derivatives with respect to each individual domain. In contrast, \emph{ordinary differential
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+ equations} (\emph{ODE}'s) are the single derivatives for a function having only
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+one domain~\cite{Tenenbaum1985}. In this thesis, we restrict ourselves to ODE's.\\
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A \emph{system of differential equations} is the name for a set of differential
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equations. The derivatives in a system of differential equations each have their
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@@ -115,34 +117,36 @@ we can rewrite the~\Cref{eq:newtonSecLaw} to
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\begin{equation}
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F=ma=m\frac{d^2s}{dt^2}.
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\end{equation}\\
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-This explanation of differential equations focuses on the aspects deemed crucial
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-for this thesis and is not intended to be a complete explanation of the subject.
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-To gain a better understanding of it, we recommend the books mentioned
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-above~\cite{Rudin2007,Tenenbaum1985}. In the following section we
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-describe the application of these principles in epidemiological models.
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+
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+To conclude, note that this explanation of differential equations focuses on the
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+aspects deemed crucial for this thesis and is not intended to be a complete
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+explanation of the subject. To gain a better understanding of it, we recommend
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+the books mentioned above~\cite{Rudin2007,Tenenbaum1985}. In the following
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+section we describe the application of these principles in epidemiological
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+models.
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% -------------------------------------------------------------------
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\section{Epidemiological Models 4}
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\label{sec:epidemModel}
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-Pandemics, like \emph{COVID-19}, which has resulted in a significant
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-number of fatalities. The question arises: How should we fight a pandemic
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-correctly? Also, it is essential to study whether the employed countermeasures
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-efficacious in combating the pandemic. Given the unfavorable public response to
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-measures such as lockdowns, it is imperative to investigate that their efficacy
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-remains commensurate with the costs incurred to those affected. In the event
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-that alternative and novel technologies were in use, such as the mRNA vaccines
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-in the context of COVID-19, it is needful to test the effect and find the
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-optimal variant. In order to shed light on the aforementioned events we need to
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-develop a method to quantize the pandemic along with its course of
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-progression.\\
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+Pandemics, like \emph{COVID-19}, which have resulted in a significant
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+number of fatalities. Hence, the question arises: How should we analyze a \todo{Better?}
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+pandemic effectively? It is essential to study whether the employed
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+countermeasures are efficacious in combating the pandemic. Given the unfavorable
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+public response to measures such as lockdowns, it is imperative to investigate
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+that their efficacy remains commensurate with the costs incurred to those
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+affected. In the event that alternative and novel technologies were in use, such
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+as the mRNA vaccines in the context of COVID-19, it is needful to test the
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+effect and find the optimal variant. In order to shed light on the
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+aforementioned events, we need a method to quantify the pandemic along with its
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+course of progression.\\
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The real world is a highly complex system, which presents a significant
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-challenge attempting to describe it fully in a model. Therefore, the model must
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-reduce the complexity while retaining the essential information. Furthermore, it
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-must address the issue of limited data availability. For instance, during
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-COVID-19 institutions such as the Robert Koch Institute
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+challenge attempting to describe it fully in a mathematical model. Therefore,
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+the model must reduce the complexity while retaining the essential information.
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+Furthermore, it must address the issue of limited data availability. For
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+instance, during COVID-19 institutions such as the Robert Koch Institute
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(RKI)\footnote[1]{\url{https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html}} were only
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able to collect data on infections and mortality cases. Consequently, we require
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a model that employs an abstraction of the real world to illustrate the events
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@@ -162,12 +166,12 @@ of SIR models.\\
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The SIR model is capable of illustrating diseases, which are transferred through
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contact or proximity of an individual carrying the illness and a healthy
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-individual. This is possible due to the distinction between infected beings
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+individual. This is possible due to the distinction between infected individuals
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who are carriers of the disease and the part of the population, which is
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susceptible to infection. In the model, the mentioned groups are capable to
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change, \eg, healthy individuals becoming infected. The model assumes the
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size $N$ of the population remains constant throughout the duration of the
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-pandemic. The population $N$ comprises three distinct groups: the
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+pandemic. The population $N$ comprises three distinct compartments: the
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\emph{susceptible} group $S$, the \emph{infectious} group $I$ and the
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\emph{removed} group $R$ (hence SIR model). Let $\mathcal{T} = [t_0, t_f]\subseteq
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\mathbb{R}_{\geq0}$ be the time span of the pandemic, then,
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@@ -180,9 +184,9 @@ $t\in\mathcal{T}$. For $S$, $I$, $R$ and $N$ applies:
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N = S + I + R.
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\end{equation}
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The model makes another assumption by stating that recovered people are immune
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-to the illness and infectious individual can not infect them. The individuals in
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-the $R$ group are either recovered or deceased, and thus unable to transmit or
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-carry the disease.
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+to the illness and infectious individuals can not infect them. The individuals
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+in the $R$ group are either recovered or deceased, and thus unable to transmit
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+or carry the disease.
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\begin{figure}[h]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[scale=0.87]{sir_graph.pdf}
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@@ -207,11 +211,12 @@ McKendrick~\cite{1927} propose the following set of differential equations:
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\frac{dR}{dt} &= \alpha I.
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\end{split}
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\end{equation}
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-This, according to Edelstein-Keshet, is based on the following assumption:
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+This set of differential equations, is based on the following assumption:
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``The rate of transmission of a microparasitic disease is proportional to the
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rate of encounter of susceptible and infective individuals modelled by the
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-product ($\beta S I$)''~\cite{EdelsteinKeshet2005}. The system shows the change
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-in size of the groups per time unit due to infections, recoveries, and deaths.\\
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+product ($\beta S I$)'', according to Edelstein-Keshet~\cite{EdelsteinKeshet2005}.
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+The system shows the change in size of the groups per time unit due to
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+infections, recoveries, and deaths.\\
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The term $\beta SI$ describes the rate of encounters of susceptible and infected
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individuals. This term is dependent on the size of $S$ and $I$, thus Anderson
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@@ -223,8 +228,8 @@ and May~\cite{Anderson1991} propose a modified model:
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\frac{dR}{dt} &= \alpha I.
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\end{split}
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\end{equation}
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-In which $\beta SI$ gets normalized by $N$, which is more correct in a
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-real world aspect~\cite{Anderson1991}.\\
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+In~\Cref{eq:modSIR} $\beta SI$ gets normalized by $N$, which is more correct in
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+a real world aspect~\cite{Anderson1991}.\\
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The initial phase of a pandemic is characterized by the infection of a small
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number of individuals, while the majority of the population remains susceptible.
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@@ -291,7 +296,9 @@ emerged.\\
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\end{subfigure}
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}
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\end{picture}
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- \caption{Synthetic data, using~\Cref{eq:modSIR} and $N=7.9\cdot 10^6$, $I_0=10$ with different sets of parameters.}
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+ \caption{Synthetic data, using~\Cref{eq:modSIR} and $N=7.9\cdot 10^6$, $I_0=10$ with different sets of parameters.
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+ We visualize the case with the reference parameters in (a). In (b) and (c) we keep $\alpha$ constant, while varying
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+ the value of $\beta$. In contrast, (d) and (e) have varying values of $\alpha$.}
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\label{fig:synth_sir}
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\end{figure}
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@@ -302,47 +309,46 @@ that the disease is unable to keep pace with the rate of recovery, resulting
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in its demise before it can exert a significant influence on the population. In
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contrast, an early and high peak means that the disease is rapidly transmitted
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through the population, with a significant proportion of individuals having been
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-infected.~\Cref{fig:sir_model} illustrates the impact of modifying either
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+infected.~\Cref{fig:sir_model} illustrates this effect by varying the values of
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$\beta$ or $\alpha$ while simulating a pandemic using a model such
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as~\Cref{eq:modSIR}. It is evident that both the transmission rate $\beta$
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and the recovery rate $\alpha$ influence the height and time of the peak of $I$.
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When the number of infections exceeds the number of recoveries, the peak of $I$
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will occur early and will be high. On the other hand, if recoveries occur at a
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-faster rate than new infections the peak will occur later and will be low. This
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-means, that it is crucial to know both $\beta$ and $\alpha$ to be able to
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-simulate a pandemic using the SIR model.\\
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+faster rate than new infections the peak will occur later and will be low. Thus,
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+it is crucial to know both $\beta$ and $\alpha$, as these parameters
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+characterize how the pandemic evolves.\\
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The SIR model makes a number of assumptions that are intended to reduce the
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model's overall complexity while simultaneously increasing its divergence from
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actual reality. One such assumption is that the size of the population, $N$,
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-remains constant. This depiction is not an accurate representation of the actual
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-relations observed in the real world, as the size of a population is subject to
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-a number of factors that can contribute to change. The population is increased
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-by the occurrence of births and decreased by the occurrence of deaths. There are
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-different reasons for mortality, including the natural aging process or the
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-development of other diseases. Other examples are the absence of the possibility
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-for individuals to be susceptible again, after having recovered, or the
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-possibility for the transition rates to change due to new variants or the
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-implementation of new countermeasures. We address this latter option in the
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-next~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:rsir}.
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+remains constant, as the daily change is negligible to the total population.
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+This depiction is not an accurate representation of the actual relations
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+observed in the real world, as the size of a population is subject to a number
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+of factors that can contribute to change. The population is increased by the
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+occurrence of births and decreased by the occurrence of deaths. Other examples
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+are the impossibility for individuals to be susceptible again, after having
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+recovered, or the possibility for the transition rates to change due to new
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+variants or the implementation of new countermeasures. We address this latter
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+option in the next~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:rsir}.
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% -------------------------------------------------------------------
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\subsection{Reduced SIR Model and the Reproduction Number 1}
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\label{sec:pandemicModel:rsir}
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-The~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:sir} presents the classical SIR model. The model
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-comprises two parameters $\beta$ and $\alpha$, which describe the course of a
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-pandemic over its duration. This is beneficial when examining the overall
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+The~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:sir} presents the classical SIR model. This model
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+contains two scalar parameters $\beta$ and $\alpha$, which describe the course
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+of a pandemic over its duration. This is beneficial when examining the overall
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pandemic; however, in the real world, disease behavior is dynamic, and the
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-values of the parameters $\beta$ and $\alpha$ change at each time point. The
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-reason for this is due to events such as the implementation of countermeasures
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-that reduce the contact between the infectious and susceptible individuals, the
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-emergence of a new variant of the disease that increases its infectivity or
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-deadliness, or the administration of a vaccination that provides previously
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-susceptible individuals with immunity without ever being infectious. To address
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-this Millevoi \etal~\cite{Millevoi2023} introduce a model that simultaneously
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-reduces the size of the system of differential equations and solves the problem
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-of time scaling at hand.\\
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+values of the parameters $\beta$ and $\alpha$ change throughout the course of
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+the disease. The reason for this is due to events such as the implementation of
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+countermeasures that reduce the contact between the infectious and susceptible
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+individuals, the emergence of a new variant of the disease that increases its
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+infectivity or deadliness, or the administration of a vaccination that provides
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+previously susceptible individuals with immunity without ever being infected. \todo{sai correction -> is this point not already included?}
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+To address this Millevoi \etal~\cite{Millevoi2023} introduce a model that \todo{are there older sources}
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+simultaneously reduces the size of the system of differential equations and
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+solves the problem of time scaling at hand.\\
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First, they alter the definition of $\beta$ and $\alpha$ to be dependent on the time interval
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$\mathcal{T} = [t_0, t_f]\subseteq \mathbb{R}_{\geq0}$,
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@@ -356,7 +362,7 @@ $t_0$, the \emph{reproduction number},
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\RO = \beta(t_0)D(t_0) = \frac{\beta(t_0)}{\alpha(t_0)},
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\end{equation}
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represents the number of susceptible individuals, that one infectious individual
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-infects at the onset of the pandemic.In light of the effects of $\beta$ and
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+infects at the onset of the pandemic. In light of the effects of $\beta$ and
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$\alpha$ (see~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:sir}), $\RO > 1$ indicates that the
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pandemic is emerging. In this scenario $\alpha$ is relatively low due to the
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limited number of infections resulting from $I(t_0) << S(t_0)$. When $\RO < 1$,
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