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@@ -81,6 +81,8 @@ semantics of a problem. This method is useful if no basic function exists for a
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system. Differential equations find application in several areas such as
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system. Differential equations find application in several areas such as
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engineering, physics, economics, epidemiology, and beyond.\\
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engineering, physics, economics, epidemiology, and beyond.\\
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+\todo{Here insert definition of differential equations (take from books)}
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+
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In the context of functions, it is possible to have multiple domains, meaning
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In the context of functions, it is possible to have multiple domains, meaning
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that function has more than one parameter. To illustrate, consider a function
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that function has more than one parameter. To illustrate, consider a function
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operating in two-dimensional space, wherein each parameter represents one axis
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operating in two-dimensional space, wherein each parameter represents one axis
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@@ -163,13 +165,13 @@ contact or proximity of an individual carrying the illness and a healthy
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individual. This is possible due to the distinction between infected beings
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individual. This is possible due to the distinction between infected beings
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who are carriers of the disease and the part of the population, which is
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who are carriers of the disease and the part of the population, which is
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susceptible to infection. In the model, the mentioned groups are capable to
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susceptible to infection. In the model, the mentioned groups are capable to
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-change, e.g., healthy individuals becoming infected. The model assumes the
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+change, \eg, healthy individuals becoming infected. The model assumes the
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size $N$ of the population remains constant throughout the duration of the
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size $N$ of the population remains constant throughout the duration of the
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pandemic. The population $N$ comprises three distinct groups: the
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pandemic. The population $N$ comprises three distinct groups: the
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\emph{susceptible} group $S$, the \emph{infectious} group $I$ and the
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\emph{susceptible} group $S$, the \emph{infectious} group $I$ and the
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\emph{removed} group $R$ (hence SIR model). Let $\mathcal{T} = [t_0, t_f]\subseteq
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\emph{removed} group $R$ (hence SIR model). Let $\mathcal{T} = [t_0, t_f]\subseteq
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\mathbb{R}_{\geq0}$ be the time span of the pandemic, then,
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\mathbb{R}_{\geq0}$ be the time span of the pandemic, then,
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-\begin{equation} \label{eq:N_char}
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+\begin{equation}
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S: \mathcal{T}\rightarrow\mathbb{N}, \quad I: \mathcal{T}\rightarrow\mathbb{N}, \quad R: \mathcal{T}\rightarrow\mathbb{N},
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S: \mathcal{T}\rightarrow\mathbb{N}, \quad I: \mathcal{T}\rightarrow\mathbb{N}, \quad R: \mathcal{T}\rightarrow\mathbb{N},
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\end{equation}
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\end{equation}
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give the values of $S$, $I$ and $R$ at a certain point of time
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give the values of $S$, $I$ and $R$ at a certain point of time
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@@ -183,7 +185,7 @@ the $R$ group are either recovered or deceased, and thus unable to transmit or
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carry the disease.
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carry the disease.
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\begin{figure}[h]
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\begin{figure}[h]
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\centering
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\centering
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- \includegraphics[scale=0.3]{sir_graph.png}
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+ \includegraphics[scale=0.87]{sir_graph.pdf}
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\caption{A visualization of the SIR model, illustrating $N$ being split in the
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\caption{A visualization of the SIR model, illustrating $N$ being split in the
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three groups $S$, $I$ and $R$.}
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three groups $S$, $I$ and $R$.}
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\label{fig:sir_model}
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\label{fig:sir_model}
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@@ -192,7 +194,7 @@ As visualized in the~\Cref{fig:sir_model} the
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individuals may transition between groups based on transition rates. The
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individuals may transition between groups based on transition rates. The
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transmission rate $\beta$ is responsible for individuals becoming infected,
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transmission rate $\beta$ is responsible for individuals becoming infected,
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while the rate of removal or recovery rate $\alpha$ (also referred to as
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while the rate of removal or recovery rate $\alpha$ (also referred to as
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-$\delta$ or $\nu$, e.g.,~\cite{EdelsteinKeshet2005,Millevoi2023}) moves
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+$\delta$ or $\nu$, \eg,~\cite{EdelsteinKeshet2005,Millevoi2023}) moves
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individuals from $I$ to $R$.\\
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individuals from $I$ to $R$.\\
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We can describe this problem mathematically using a system of differential
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We can describe this problem mathematically using a system of differential
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@@ -244,8 +246,8 @@ emerged.\\
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\setlength{\unitlength}{1cm} % Set the unit length for coordinates
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\setlength{\unitlength}{1cm} % Set the unit length for coordinates
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\begin{picture}(12, 9.5) % Specify the size of the picture environment (width, height)
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\begin{picture}(12, 9.5) % Specify the size of the picture environment (width, height)
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% reference
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% reference
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- \put(0, 2.5){
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- \begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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+ \put(0, 1.75){
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+ \begin{subfigure}{0.4\textwidth}
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\centering
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{reference_params_synth.png}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{reference_params_synth.png}
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\caption{$\alpha=0.35$, $\beta=0.5$}
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\caption{$\alpha=0.35$, $\beta=0.5$}
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@@ -253,7 +255,7 @@ emerged.\\
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\end{subfigure}
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\end{subfigure}
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}
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}
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% 1. row, 1.image (low beta)
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% 1. row, 1.image (low beta)
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- \put(5, 5){
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+ \put(5.5, 5){
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\centering
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{low_beta_synth.png}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{low_beta_synth.png}
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@@ -262,7 +264,7 @@ emerged.\\
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\end{subfigure}
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\end{subfigure}
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}
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}
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% 1. row, 2.image (high beta)
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% 1. row, 2.image (high beta)
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- \put(9, 5){
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+ \put(9.5, 5){
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\centering
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{high_beta_synth.png}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{high_beta_synth.png}
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@@ -271,7 +273,7 @@ emerged.\\
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\end{subfigure}
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\end{subfigure}
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}
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}
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% 2. row, 1.image (low alpha)
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% 2. row, 1.image (low alpha)
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- \put(5, 0){
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+ \put(5.5, 0){
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\centering
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{low_alpha_synth.png}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{low_alpha_synth.png}
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@@ -280,7 +282,7 @@ emerged.\\
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\end{subfigure}
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\end{subfigure}
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}
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}
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% 2. row, 2.image (high alpha)
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% 2. row, 2.image (high alpha)
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- \put(9, 0){
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+ \put(9.5, 0){
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\begin{subfigure}{0.3\textwidth}
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\centering
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{high_alpha_synth.png}
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\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{high_alpha_synth.png}
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@@ -338,7 +340,7 @@ that reduce the contact between the infectious and susceptible individuals, the
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emergence of a new variant of the disease that increases its infectivity or
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emergence of a new variant of the disease that increases its infectivity or
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deadliness, or the administration of a vaccination that provides previously
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deadliness, or the administration of a vaccination that provides previously
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susceptible individuals with immunity without ever being infectious. To address
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susceptible individuals with immunity without ever being infectious. To address
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-this Millevoi et al.~\cite{Millevoi2023} introduce a model that simultaneously
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+this Millevoi \etal~\cite{Millevoi2023} introduce a model that simultaneously
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reduces the size of the system of differential equations and solves the problem
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reduces the size of the system of differential equations and solves the problem
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of time scaling at hand.\\
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of time scaling at hand.\\
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@@ -360,7 +362,7 @@ pandemic is emerging. In this scenario $\alpha$ is relatively low due to the
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limited number of infections resulting from $I(t_0) << S(t_0)$. When $\RO < 1$,
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limited number of infections resulting from $I(t_0) << S(t_0)$. When $\RO < 1$,
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the disease is spreading rapidly across the population, with an increase in $I$
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the disease is spreading rapidly across the population, with an increase in $I$
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occurring at a high rate. Nevertheless, $\RO$ does not cover the entire time
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occurring at a high rate. Nevertheless, $\RO$ does not cover the entire time
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-span. For this reason, Millevoi et al.~\cite{Millevoi2023} introduce $\Rt$
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+span. For this reason, Millevoi \etal~\cite{Millevoi2023} introduce $\Rt$
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which has the same interpretation as $\RO$, with the exception that $\Rt$ is
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which has the same interpretation as $\RO$, with the exception that $\Rt$ is
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dependent on time. The definition of the time-dependent reproduction number on
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dependent on time. The definition of the time-dependent reproduction number on
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the time interval $\mathcal{T}$ with the population size $N$,
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the time interval $\mathcal{T}$ with the population size $N$,
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@@ -383,7 +385,7 @@ $S$ and $I$, with the term $R(t)=N-S(t)-I(t)$. Thus,
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\end{equation}
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\end{equation}
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is the reduction of~\Cref{eq:sir} on the time interval $\mathcal{T}$ using this
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is the reduction of~\Cref{eq:sir} on the time interval $\mathcal{T}$ using this
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characteristic and the reproduction number \Rt (see ~\Cref{eq:repr_num}).
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characteristic and the reproduction number \Rt (see ~\Cref{eq:repr_num}).
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-Another issue that Millevoi et al.~\cite{Millevoi2023} seek to address is the
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+Another issue that Millevoi \etal~\cite{Millevoi2023} seek to address is the
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extensive range of values that the SIR groups can assume, spanning from $0$ to
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extensive range of values that the SIR groups can assume, spanning from $0$ to
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$10^7$. Accordingly, they initially scale the time interval $\mathcal{T}$ using
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$10^7$. Accordingly, they initially scale the time interval $\mathcal{T}$ using
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its borders to calculate the scaled time $t_s = \frac{t - t_0}{t_f - t_0}\in
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its borders to calculate the scaled time $t_s = \frac{t - t_0}{t_f - t_0}\in
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@@ -413,7 +415,55 @@ differential equations in an epidemiological context. Now, the last point is to
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solve these equations. For this problem, there are multiple methods to reach
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solve these equations. For this problem, there are multiple methods to reach
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this goal one of them is the \emph{Multilayer Perceptron}
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this goal one of them is the \emph{Multilayer Perceptron}
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(MLP)~\cite{Hornik1989}. In the following we briefly tackle the structure,
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(MLP)~\cite{Hornik1989}. In the following we briefly tackle the structure,
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-training and usage of these neural networks.
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+training and usage of these \emph{neural networks} using, for which we use the book
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+\emph{Deep Learning} by Goodfellow \etal~\cite{Goodfellow-et-al-2016} as a base
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+for our explanations.\\
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+
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+The goal is to be able to approximate any function $f^{*}$ that is for instance
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+mathematical function or a mapping of an input vector to a class or category.
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+Let $\boldsymbol{x}$ be the input vector and $\boldsymbol{y}$ the label, class
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+or result, then,
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+\begin{equation}
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+ \boldsymbol{y} = f^{*}(\boldsymbol{x}),
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+\end{equation}
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+is the function to approximate. In the year 1958,
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+Rosenblatt~\cite{Rosenblatt1958} proposed the perceptron modeling the concept of
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+a neuron in a neuroscientific sense. The perceptron takes in the input vector
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+$\boldsymbol{x}$ performs anoperation and produces a scalar result. This model
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+optimizes its parameters $\theta$ to be able to calculate $\boldsymbol{y} =
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+ f(\boldsymbol{x}; \theta)$ as correct as possible. As Minsky and
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+Papert~\cite{Minsky1972} show, the perceptron on its own is able to approximate
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+only a class of functions. Thus, the need for an expansion of the perceptron.\\
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+
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+As Goodfellow \etal go on, the solution for this is to split $f$ into a chain
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+structure of $f(\boldsymbol{x}) = f^{(3)}(f^{(2)}(f^{(1)}(\boldsymbol{x})))$.
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+This transforms a perceptron, which has an input and output layer into a
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+multilayer perceptron. Each sub-function $f^{(n)}$ is represented in the
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+structure of an MLP as a \emph{layer}, which are each build of a multitude of
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+\emph{units} (also \emph{neurons}) each of which are doing the same
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+vector-to-scalar calculation as the perceptron does. Each scalar, is then given
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+to a nonlinear activation function. The layers are staggered in the neural
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+network, with each being connected to its neighbor, in the way as illustrated
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+in~\Cref{fig:mlp_example}. The input vector $\boldsymbol{x}$ is given to each
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+unit of the first layer $f^{(1)}$, which results are then given to the units of
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+the second layer $f^{(2)}$, and so on. The last layer is called the
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+\emph{output layer}. All layers in between the first and the output layers are
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+called \emph{hidden layers}. Through the alternating structure of linear and
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+nonlinear calculation MLP's are able to approximate any kind of function. As
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+Hornik \etal~\cite{Hornik1989} shows, MLP's are universal approximators.\\
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+
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+\begin{figure}[h]
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+ \centering
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+ \includegraphics[scale=0.87]{MLP.pdf}
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+ \caption{A visualization of the SIR model, illustrating $N$ being split in the
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+ three groups $S$, $I$ and $R$.}
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+ \label{fig:mlp_example}
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+\end{figure}
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+
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+The process of optimizing the parameters $\theta$ is called \emph{learning}.
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+Here, we define a metric for the quality of the results, of our neural network.
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+This metric is called a loss function
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+
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% -------------------------------------------------------------------
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% -------------------------------------------------------------------
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