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add start of PINN for SIR

Phillip Rothenbeck 10 tháng trước cách đây
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  1. 51 0
      chapters/chap03/chap03.tex
  2. 11 0
      thesis.bbl
  3. 14 0
      thesis.bib
  4. BIN
      thesis.pdf

+ 51 - 0
chapters/chap03/chap03.tex

@@ -141,6 +141,57 @@ employed by the PINN models, which we describe in the subsequent section.
 \section{PINN for the SIR Model   3}
 \label{sec:pinn:sir}
 
+In the last section we present the methods, we use to transform the RKI data
+(see~\Cref{sec:preprocessing}) into the format that is used by the PINNs to seek
+a solution for the SIR models. In this section we lay out the methodology we
+employ for this thesis concerning PINNs for SIR models.\\
+
+The data, which is yielded by the preprocessing, is in the structure of pairs of
+$(\boldsymbol{t^{(i)}}, (\boldsymbol{S^{(i)}},\boldsymbol{I^{(i)}},\boldsymbol{R^{(i)}}))$,
+which contain the sizes of the susceptible, infectious, and removed compartments
+together with their respective time point with the index $i$. This means that
+this training data contains the measured solutions of the functions $S(t)$,
+$I(t),$ and $R(t)$, which a neural network may use to approximate these
+functions. Furthermore, a PINN can carry out this task with a higher precision
+for more complex problems were the unknown function is more complex and just a
+system of differential equations is given.\\
+
+In this thesis we want to find the solutions of the SIR models belonging to the
+cases of the datasets. The SIR model is given through the system of differential
+equations (see~\Cref{eq:sir}), which describes the relations and fluctuations of
+the three compartments through transition rates $\beta$ and $\alpha$. As we
+explain in~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:sir}, these parameters influence course of
+the pandemic, which is described by their respective model. Mathematically, when
+we find a pair of parameters for a dataset, these parameters describe a
+function, that solves the system of differential equations for our data set. A
+PINN finds parameters for a given set of differential equations by solving the
+inverse problem. As Shaier \etal~\cite{Shaier2021} propose, a DINN solves inverse
+problems by setting the parameters $\beta$ and $\alpha$ to trainable parameters
+$\widehat{\beta}$ and $\widehat{\alpha}$. As described in~\Cref{sec:pinn}, the
+DINN learns the parameters to optimize its model predictions $\hat{\boldsymbol{S}}$,
+$\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}$, and $\hat{\boldsymbol{R}}$, to fit the differential
+equations through the usage of their residuals and the given data.\\
+
+The PINN uses the loss function to determine how far it is away from the true
+solution. For the DINN~\cite{Shaier2021} this loss function includes the mean
+squared error of each residual in addition to the mean squared error of the
+model predictions concerning their respective true solutions. On the contrary to
+Shaier \etal, who use the set of differential equations of~\Cref{eq:sir} for
+their loss function, we use~\Cref{eq:modSIR}. The reason for this choice is that
+we encountered a better practical performance during our work than when using
+the equation, used by Shaier \etal. Let $N$ be the size of the population and
+$N_t$ the number of training point of the used dataset then,
+
+\begin{equation}
+    \begin{split}
+        \mathcal{L}_{\text{SIR}}(\boldsymbol{t}, \boldsymbol{S}, \boldsymbol{I}, \boldsymbol{R}, \hat{\boldsymbol{S}}, \hat{\boldsymbol{I}}, \hat{\boldsymbol{R}}) = &\bigg\|\frac{d\hat{\boldsymbol{S}}}{d\boldsymbol{t}}+ \widehat{\beta}\frac{\hat{\boldsymbol{S}}\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}}{N}\bigg\|^2\\ + &\bigg\|\frac{d\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}}{d\boldsymbol{t}} - \widehat{\beta}\frac{\hat{\boldsymbol{S}}\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}}{N} + \widehat{\alpha}\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}\bigg\|^2\\ + &\bigg\|\frac{d\hat{\boldsymbol{R}}}{d\boldsymbol{t}} + \widehat{\alpha}\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}\bigg\|^2\\
+        + &\frac{1}{N_t}\sum_{i=1}^{N_t} \Big\|\hat{\boldsymbol{S}}^{(i)}-\boldsymbol{S}^{(i)}\Big\|^2  + \Big\|\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}^{(i)}-\boldsymbol{I}^{(i)}\Big\|^2 + \Big\|\hat{\boldsymbol{R}}^{(i)}-\boldsymbol{R}^{(i)}\Big\|^2,
+    \end{split}
+\end{equation}
+
+is the loss function, that employ to find the transition parameters $\beta$ and
+$alpha$ for the given dataset.
+
 % -------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 \section{PINN for the reduced SIR Model   2}

+ 11 - 0
thesis.bbl

@@ -133,6 +133,17 @@
 \newblock DOI 10.1103/physrev.28.1049. --
 \newblock ISSN 0031--899X
 
+\bibitem[SdC17]{Smirnova2017}
+\textsc{Smirnova}, Alexandra ; \textsc{deCamp}, Linda  ; \textsc{Chowell},
+  Gerardo:
+\newblock Forecasting Epidemics Through Nonparametric Estimation of
+  Time-Dependent Transmission Rates Using the SEIR Model.
+\newblock {In: }\emph{Bulletin of Mathematical Biology} 81 (2017), Mai, Nr. 11,
+  S. 4343--4365.
+\newblock \url{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0284-3}. --
+\newblock DOI 10.1007/s11538--017--0284--3. --
+\newblock ISSN 1522--9602
+
 \bibitem[SRS21]{Shaier2021}
 \textsc{Shaier}, Sagi ; \textsc{Raissi}, Maziar  ; \textsc{Seshaiyer},
   Padmanabhan:

+ 14 - 0
thesis.bib

@@ -241,4 +241,18 @@
   publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
 }
 
+@Article{Smirnova2017,
+  author    = {Smirnova, Alexandra and deCamp, Linda and Chowell, Gerardo},
+  journal   = {Bulletin of Mathematical Biology},
+  title     = {Forecasting Epidemics Through Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Dependent Transmission Rates Using the SEIR Model},
+  year      = {2017},
+  issn      = {1522-9602},
+  month     = may,
+  number    = {11},
+  pages     = {4343--4365},
+  volume    = {81},
+  doi       = {10.1007/s11538-017-0284-3},
+  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
+}
+
 @Comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:bibtex;}

BIN
thesis.pdf