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@@ -240,48 +240,49 @@ reproduction number $\Rt$ on the German data of the RKI.
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\section{Estimating the Reproduction Number using PINNs 2}
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\label{sec:pinn:rsir}
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-The previous section, shows the methodology we utilize to ascertain the
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-non-time-dependent transmission and recovery rates from a data set obtained from
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-the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. In this section we employ PINNs to identify
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-the time-dependent reproduction number $\Rt$, while reducing the number of state
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-variables and the reliance on assumptions, by reducing the system of ODEs
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+The previous section illustrates the methodology we employ to detemine the
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+constant transmission and recovery rates from a data set obtained from
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+the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. In this section, we utilize PINNs to identify
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+the time-dependent reproduction number, $\Rt$, while reducing the number of
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+state variables and the reliance on assumptions, by reducing the system of ODEs
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comprising the SIR model. The methodology presented in this section is based on
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the approach developed by Millevoi \etal~\cite{Millevoi2023}.\\
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-In real-world pandemics the rate of infection is affected by a multitude of
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-factors. Events like the rising awareness for the disease in the population, the
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-implementation of non-pharmaceutical mitigations such as social distancing
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-policies, and the emergence of a new variants have an impact on the transmission
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-rate $\beta$. Accordingly, a transmission rate that is not time-dependent and
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-constant across the whole duration of the pandemic may not accurately reflect
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-the dynamics of the spread of a real-world disease correctly. Although we set
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-the transmission rate to be time-dependent, the recovery time is assumed to be
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-relatively constant in time. The Robert Koch
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+In real-world pandemics, the rate of infection is influenced by a multitude of
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+factors. Events such as the growing awareness for the disease among the general
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+population, the introduction of non-pharmaceutical mitigations such as social
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+distancing policies, and the emergence of a new variants have an impact on the
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+transmission rate $\beta$. Accordingly, a transmission rate that is not
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+time-dependent and constant across the entire duration of the pandemic may not
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+accurately reflect the dynamics of the spread of a real-world disease correctly.
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+Although we set the transmission rate to be time-dependent, the recovery time
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+is assumed to be relatively constant over time. The Robert Koch
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Institute\footnote{\url{https://github.com/robert-koch-institut/SARS-CoV-2-Infektionen_in_Deutschland.git}}
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posits that the typical recovery period for the illness under normal conditions
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-is 14 days, while those individuals with severe cases take about 28 days to
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-recover. Given the negligible number of severe cases compared to the number of
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-normal cases, we can set the recovery time to $D=14$ resulting in $\alpha = \nicefrac{1}{14}$.
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-The reproduction number, $\Rt$ (see~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:rsir}), represents
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-the number of infections that occur as a result of one infectious individual. It
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-indicates if a pandemic is emerging or if it is spreading rapidly through the
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-susceptible population. By inserting the definition~\Cref{eq:repr_num}, into the
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-system of ODEs of the SIR model, we can derive one~\Cref{eq:reduced_sir_ODE}. In
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-order to solve this, we must identify a function that maps a time point to the
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-size of the infectious compartment and the specific reproduction number.\\
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+is 14 days, while those individuals with severe cases require approximately 28
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+days to recover. In the light of the negligible number of severe cases in
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+comparison to the number of normal cases, we can set the recovery time to
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+$D=14$, which yields $\alpha = \nicefrac{1}{14}$. The reproduction number,
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+$\Rt$ (see~\Cref{sec:pandemicModel:rsir}), represents the number of new
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+infections that occur as a result of one infectious individual. It indicates
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+whether a pandemic is emerging or if it is spreading rapidly through the susceptible
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+population. By inserting the definition of~\Cref{eq:repr_num}, into the system
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+of ODEs of the SIR model, we can derive one~\Cref{eq:reduced_sir_ODE}. In order
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+to solve this, we must identify a function that maps a time point to the size
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+of the infectious compartment and the specific reproduction number.\\
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As with the constant transition rates, we employ a data-driven approach for
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identifying the time-dependent reproduction number $\Rt$. The PINN approximates
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-the size ,$\boldsymbol{I}$, with its model prediction $\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}$ by
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+the size $\boldsymbol{I}$ with its model prediction $\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}$ by
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minimizing the term,
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\begin{equation}\label{eq:rSir_squared_err}
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\Big\|\hat{\boldsymbol{I}}^{(i)}-\boldsymbol{I}^{(i)}\Big\|^2,
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\end{equation}
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for each $i\in\{1,...,N_t\}$. In order to identify the reproduction number, the
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PINN minimizes the residuals of the ODE during the training process. The
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-training process is analogous to the one of the PINN, which identifies $\beta$
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-and $alpha$ (see~\Cref{sec:pinn:sir}). The distinction lies in the absence of
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-trainable parameters and the inclusion of an additional state variable that
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+training process is analogous to that of the PINN, which identifies $\beta$
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+and $\alpha$ (see~\Cref{sec:pinn:sir}). However, there are two key differences. Firstly, the absence of
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+trainable parameters. Secondly, the inclusion of an additional state variable that
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fluctuates in response to the input. While the state variable $\boldsymbol{I}$
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is approximated using the error between the training data and the predicted
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values, the state variable $\Rt$ is approximated exclusively based on the
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